Let me establish upfront that I am no great prognosticator. As a matter of fact, as best I can remember, I’ve never made a list of predictions before in my life. It is presumptuous, and that is one thing a follower of Jesus Christ should never be. I’m reminded of what the Apostle James wrote to the early Church:

¹³ Now listen, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money.” ¹⁴ Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes. ¹⁵ Instead, you ought to say, “If it is the Lord’s will, we will live and do this or that.” ¹⁶ As it is, you boast in your arrogant schemes. All such boasting is evil.¹⁷ If anyone, then, knows the good they ought to do and doesn’t do it, it is sin for them. James 4:13-17 (NIV)

We can’t predict the next hour with great certainty much less the next year, so it is a bit bold to attempt a list of predictions as we roll into this new year.

So, why embark on such a fool’s task? Well, one, I’m probably a fool, but two, because I have followed the Christian landscape fairly closely over the past few years and I see some things on the horizon that I’m concerned about. Perhaps, then, they are not so much predictions as they are points of interest to watch or look for as the year progesess. I share them so that you might watch with me.

So, without further ado, here are FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS CONCERNING THE CHURCH IN 2026 (in no particular order):

5) The United Methodist Church will continue to decline.

I hope this doesn’t sound like sour grapes, nor do I wish you to think I relish in this prediction, but this one really is a no-brainer without the direct intervention of the Holy Spirit. The trajectory over the past few years is relatively clear–it’s down and to the right.

That trajectory was hastened by the “disaffiliation” process the denomination instituted a few years ago. Statistics for my old Annual Conference shows a total membership of 53,085 in 2024 (the last year available) and total weekly attendance of 22,281. My final year as a member of the Annual Conference (2019) showed 105,992 membership/104,501 attendance. I’ll grant that Covid occurred in the interim, but so did disaffiliation. Between the two, the Annual Conference saw severe decline.

The number of congregations constituting the Annual Conference also saw a significant decrease during that same period. The denominational statistical website (UMData.org) lists 267 congregations in the Louisiana Annual Conference at the close of 2024. Likewise, at the end of 2019, there were 486 congregations.

By my math (which ain’t great, by the way), that equates to approximately a 50% drop in membership, an over 80% drop in attendance, and a 45% drop in the number of congregations. None of those are encouraging numbers.

According to Google, between 7,600 – 7,900 congregations departed the denomination since 2019. That’s over 25% of all the congregations that once constituted the United Methodist Church. The numbers also don’t tell us how many members were “quiet departures”–meaning they simply left their congregations without fanfare.

Hey? This isn’t new information. The United Methodist Church was in decline pre-Covid and pre-disaffiliation. Both only hastened the process. Long before Covid or disaffiliation, economist Don House warned UMC leadership that collapse was inevitable.

Honestly, the UMC is only going the way of all mainline denominations. The Pew Research Center has catalogued this decline for years. Count the decline to whatever reason you will (there are many and it is complex), failing the Holy Spirit’s intervention, this prediction is rather easy to make.

4) Large churches will get larger and small churches will get smaller.

This prediction, too, is a safe one. Researchers say that overall church attendance is down while megachurch (over 2,000 people in attendance) is up 10%. Here’s what’s happening: Many believers are leaving the small congregation and migrating to the large one.

It’s another example of “consumer” Christianity. For better or worse, it’s a fact and we need to acknowledge it. Church members migrate to the larger churches in favor of programming, activities and events that smaller congregations can’t or don’t have. Also, many people embrace the anonymity that comes by being a part of a large church. One can slip in and slip out un-noticed, and if they leave the congregation no one notices.

Yup, in a megachurch, one never has to look another person in the eye. In a small church, a newcomer may have to navigate (or hope to avoid) every person in the congregation. Talk about no longer living in a culture where that possibility is comfortable is understatement.

Additionally, smaller congregations are “graying,” meaning its members are getting older. When we get older, we don’t attend as often. Illness and mobility limit our participation. It’s a fact of life. Smaller congregations are finding it difficult to replace those graying members. The reasons are, again, diverse and complicated. Failing the Holy Spirit’s intervention, this prediction, too, is an easy one to make.

3) Artificial Intelligence will become more prominent in Christian worship.

I’m really going out on a limb with these predictions, aren’t I? Though it is an easy prediction to make, this one concerns me more than the rest. Why?

The use of Artificial intelligence removes the human element and removing the human element from Christian worship distorts the reality of Christian worship.

Consider this: recently, the number 1 song in Christian worship was written by AI and performed by an AI generated personality (see the story here). There is no Holy Spirit engagement, no human struggle, no human/Divine interaction, no witness/testimony. Each of these are necessary in authentic worship of the Lord.

Yes, I know. The integration of AI is just another use of “technology” in the worship experience, but is it a good one? How about AI writing your pastor’s sermons? Good idea? I don’t think so!

I’ll confess. I have utilized AI in my sermon preparation. It is a great tool to use for research. When I left full-time vocational ministry, I sold (or gave away) the lion’s share of my library. AI has kept me from having to repurchase volumes and volumes of commentaries, dictionaries and the like now that I’m serving bivocationally. As a tool, AI is great. As a replacement for prayer, study and preparation, not so much.

Honestly, AI can probably write a better sermon than I can. I tried it one time (read the results here). It was a very good sermon. No, I did not preach it.

AI can read all the Bible commentaries in the world in seconds, categorize their meanings and spit out a 2,000 word sermon in under a minute. What pastor wouldn’t love to free up 8 – 10 (or more) hours per week to devote to other responsibilities? But, using AI to write one’s sermon is equally as bad as a pastor plagiarizing another pastor’s sermon (which happens far too often, anyway). Then again, wasn’t it Mark Twain who said, “The key to originality is the ability to conceal one’s sources.” Ouch!

Let’s not even mention the impact that AI is going to have on the use of resources that could otherwise be used to promote human flourishing. Do you know how much energy (electricity) these AI data centers are going to need? WE ARE NOT PREPARED FOR THE FULLY FUNCTIONING AI EXPERIENCE!

AI will be the death of the human race. That’s a far more bold prediction than predicting it will be used more in Christian worship. Pastors and lay persons need to seriously assess the use of AI in the body of Christ. We need the Holy Spirit’s intervention if we are to be faithful stewards of this transformative technology.

2) Christian persecution will grow in 2026, especially in the United States.

It was November of last year that saw gunmen enter St. Mary’s Catholic School in Nigeria kidnapping over 300 students and a dozen teachers. Only a few days earlier, attackers targeted a church in Nigeria, killing two and injuring 38 more (story here). These types of attacks are increasing in frequency, so to predict more in 2026 is yet another easy call (see how bold I am?).

For a sampling of areas of persecution, see the Wikipedia statement below:

“According to the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom‘s 2020 report, Christians in Burma, China, Eritrea, India, Iran, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Vietnam are persecuted; these countries are labelled “countries of particular concern” by the United States Department of State, because of their governments’ engagement in, or toleration of, “severe violations of religious freedom”.^[15]: 2 The same report recommends that Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, the Central African Republic, Cuba, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Sudan, and Turkey constitute the US State Department’s “special watchlist” of countries in which the government allows or engages in “severe violations of religious freedom“.^[15]: 2

“Much of the persecution of Christians in recent times is perpetrated by non-state actors which are labelled “entities of particular concern” by the US State Department, including the Islamist groups Boko Haram in Nigeria, the Houthi movement in Yemen, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province in Pakistan, al-Shabaab in Somalia, the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Islamic State as well as the United Wa State Army and participants in the Kachin conflict in Myanmar.^[15]: 2“

I know…Wikipedia, right?

A little more bold prediction is for the type of persecution that is happening around the world is going to increase in the United States. What some call persecution, others call inconvenience. I see inconvenience soon becoming persecution with the increasing secularization of western culture, and the encroachment of Islamic influence and socialist/communist polices and politicians in our nation.

Examples of the “creeping” nature of this persecution are when churches were forced to close in 2020 while casinos, bars and strip clubs remained open, and the recent legal suits against Christian business owners who refused to serve LGBT+ customers. Okay, so I would have made the cake, but I shouldn’t be forced to or made to pay if I refuse. Need I even mention the targeting by the IRS of Christian non-profits?

Of all of my “bold” predictions, this is the one that is least likely to come to pass (at least I hope it is), but it is, nonetheless, a legitimate possibility.

And for my final prediction…

1) Jesus will continue to save the lost.

Talk about the no-brainer of no-brainers. The Holy Spirit will be active in the Church to make a difference in people’s lives and bring them to a saving relationship with Jesus Christ.

Our task, as disciples, is to live faithful, obedient and holy lives so that the Holy Spirit might actually use us in that process.

Evangelism is a cornerstone of the growth of the Kingdom of God and will be integral to the work the Holy Spirit will do if predictions 4 & 5 are to be avoided in 2026 and beyond. Unfortunately, I am afraid evangelism is no longer in the theological wheelhouse of the mainline church, or in many small congregations (regardless of affiliation).

Let us be diligent in sharing the Gospel because we know the Lord Jesus Christ is still in the saving business. His grace is enough.

I’m 100% certain of this prediction because no liberal, mainline theological drift, no congregational decline, no technology and no persecution can change the power of Jesus Christ to save a life. He is the One who builds His Church. He is the One who transforms lives. The Church, that invisible, eternal body of Christ will continue to grow and make a difference in this old world. How do I know? Because Jesus Himself said so:

“And I say also unto thee, ‘That thou art Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church; and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it’.” Matthew 16:18 (KJV)

That, my friends, is good news, indeed!

So, none of my predictions were really that bold after all. Well, anyway, here’s to a blessed 2026.

Until next time, keep looking up…