It is no secret that I hate reports. When I left full-time ministry, I said to myself, “Self, you’re done with reports.”
What I hate more than reports? Lying to myself! I lied to myself when I said I was done with reports because I just finished my “Pastor’s Report” for the small church where I serve. I suppose if I didn’t want to do reports then I shouldn’t have signed on to pastoring again–even part-time.
I will admit that I was convicted by the report, which I suppose reporting is meant to accomplish. The report asked the question, “What is the Lord currently speaking to you about your personal discipleship?” I must say that I didn’t want to answer the question.
Here’s the answer I gave: “The primary place the Lord is challenging me is in my personal accountability. Since beginning to serve as pastor at Haughton, it has been difficult to stay in a meaningful relationship with my accountability partners. Time and distance have prevented those relationships other than the occasional phone call. The Lord is convicting me to be more intentional in staying connected.”
A Means of Grace
Accountability. That’s my growing edge. Accountability is much easier in full-time vocational ministry. As a bi-vocational pastor, I have struggled to maintain any legitimate accountability relationships. The accountability of reporting brought that reality front and center. Ironic, huh?
I could offer several excellent excuses (time, distance, blah, blah, blah) as justification for allowing my accountability relationships to fall by the wayside, but the truth is personal accountability simply became an afterthought after stepping away from full-time ministry.
I don’t know why that happened. I’m nothing if not Wesleyan in my understanding of grace, and for Wesley, accountability (he called it Christian conferencing) is at the heart of faithful discipleship. Accountability is a means of grace–a means of experiencing the sanctifying grace of our Lord Jesus Christ. I suppose I haven’t been a very faithful disciple in recent years.
Of course, accountability partners are useless unless there is honesty in the process. It’s easy to be dishonest when there’s an issue you want to cover-up. Maybe not even cover-up…one simply doesn’t want to deal with it…so, just don’t say anything.
Accountability and a Fall from Grace
The necessity of honest accountability was brought home, not simply by the accountability of filling out reports, but also by the news that another (yes, one more) popular Christian leader had fallen from his lofty perch. Author and speaker Philip Yancey announced that he was leaving public life after confessing to an eight-year affair.
The news was heart-breaking for me, not only because another prominent Christian was found to be a sinner (like me), but because Yancey’s books were meaningful in my own spiritual development. His book, “What’s So Amazing About Grace?” was published while I was in seminary and was seminal in fleshing out my own understanding of God’s grace. When I left full-time ministry, I actually wrestled with giving my copy of the book away (alas, I did). So, to say the news was disappointing is an understatement.
Of course, the news made me wonder about Yancey’s own accountability. Apparently, it didn’t matter (at least not for eight years), but then again, it only matters if we surround ourselves with true accountability partners and surrender ourselves to the process. See, accountability is real easy to talk about. It is much harder to accomplish.
Surrender to Accountability
I think one reason accountability is so hard is because we have to surrender to it. When we surrender, we are no longer in control, and we like nothing more than we like control. For many of us surrender is not in our vocabulary. Yet, surrender is exactly what we must do if we are to live faithful, Christian lives. Surrender is the essence of becoming the “living sacrifice” that the Apostle Paul mention is Romans 12: 1-2–
“Therefore, I urge you, brothers and sisters, in view of God’s mercy, to offer your bodies as a living sacrifice, holy and pleasing to God—this is your true and proper worship. 2 Do not conform to the pattern of this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind. Then you will be able to test and approve what God’s will is—his good, pleasing and perfect will.”
I’m not going to be mad at Yancey for being a sinner (like some people I’ve read). I’m going to remind myself about the grace of which he wrote. I’m also going to remember that Truth is still true even if the Truth is spoken by a flawed messenger. We are all flawed messengers. That’s why we all need grace.
I’m also not going to be mad at God. God didn’t have a thing to do with Yancey’s fall. It was all on Yancey (well, and whoever he had the affair with). This was a them problem, not a God problem. It won’t lessen my faith in Him. If anything, it may strengthen it. It will certainly remind me of my continual need for Him.
What I am going to do is reflect on my own sinfulness and put in place those measures necessary to guard my own heart and mind–surrender means both the mind and the body (see Romans 12 above)–against any possibility this could happen to me. Let’s call it what it is–accountability–honest, frequent, personal accountability. I need it. We all do if we’re going to live faithful lives as disciples of Jesus Christ.
So, I guess those reports that I loathe so much are useful after all. Perhaps my accountability can include confessing to those higher up the food chain than me that I hate their stupid reports. Maybe that will keep me honest to the process? No, probably not. I need to be a little more intentional than that. I need to be a little more surrendered than that.
Let me establish upfront that I am no great prognosticator. As a matter of fact, as best I can remember, I’ve never made a list of predictions before in my life. It is presumptuous, and that is one thing a follower of Jesus Christ should never be. I’m reminded of what the Apostle James wrote to the early Church:
13 Now listen, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money.” 14 Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes. 15 Instead, you ought to say, “If it is the Lord’s will, we will live and do this or that.” 16 As it is, you boast in your arrogant schemes. All such boasting is evil.17 If anyone, then, knows the good they ought to do and doesn’t do it, it is sin for them. James 4:13-17 (NIV)
Image created using AI
We can’t predict the next hour with great certainty much less the next year, so it is a bit bold to attempt a list of predictions as we roll into this new year.
So, why embark on such a fool’s task? Well, one, I’m probably a fool, but two, because I have followed the Christian landscape fairly closely over the past few years and I see some things on the horizon that I’m concerned about. Perhaps, then, they are not so much predictions as they are points of interest to watch or look for as the year progesess. I share them so that you might watch with me.
So, without further ado, here are FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS CONCERNING THE CHURCH IN 2026 (in no particular order):
5) The United Methodist Church will continue to decline.
I hope this doesn’t sound like sour grapes, nor do I wish you to think I relish in this prediction, but this one really is a no-brainer without the direct intervention of the Holy Spirit. The trajectory over the past few years is relatively clear–it’s down and to the right.
That trajectory was hastened by the “disaffiliation” process the denomination instituted a few years ago. Statistics for my old Annual Conference shows a total membership of 53,085 in 2024 (the last year available) and total weekly attendance of 22,281. My final year as a member of the Annual Conference (2019) showed 105,992 membership/104,501 attendance. I’ll grant that Covid occurred in the interim, but so did disaffiliation. Between the two, the Annual Conference saw severe decline.
The number of congregations constituting the Annual Conference also saw a significant decrease during that same period. The denominational statistical website (UMData.org) lists 267 congregations in the Louisiana Annual Conference at the close of 2024. Likewise, at the end of 2019, there were 486 congregations.
By my math (which ain’t great, by the way), that equates to approximately a 50% drop in membership, an over 80% drop in attendance, and a 45% drop in the number of congregations. None of those are encouraging numbers.
According to Google, between 7,600 – 7,900 congregations departed the denomination since 2019. That’s over 25% of all the congregations that once constituted the United Methodist Church. The numbers also don’t tell us how many members were “quiet departures”–meaning they simply left their congregations without fanfare.
Hey? This isn’t new information. The United Methodist Church was in decline pre-Covid and pre-disaffiliation. Both only hastened the process. Long before Covid or disaffiliation, economist Don House warned UMC leadership that collapse was inevitable.
Honestly, the UMC is only going the way of all mainline denominations. The Pew Research Center has catalogued this decline for years. Count the decline to whatever reason you will (there are many and it is complex), failing the Holy Spirit’s intervention, this prediction is rather easy to make.
4) Large churches will get larger and small churches will get smaller.
This prediction, too, is a safe one. Researchers say that overall church attendance is down while megachurch (over 2,000 people in attendance) is up 10%. Here’s what’s happening: Many believers are leaving the small congregation and migrating to the large one.
It’s another example of “consumer” Christianity. For better or worse, it’s a fact and we need to acknowledge it. Church members migrate to the larger churches in favor of programming, activities and events that smaller congregations can’t or don’t have. Also, many people embrace the anonymity that comes by being a part of a large church. One can slip in and slip out un-noticed, and if they leave the congregation no one notices.
Yup, in a megachurch, one never has to look another person in the eye. In a small church, a newcomer may have to navigate (or hope to avoid) every person in the congregation. Talk about no longer living in a culture where that possibility is comfortable is understatement.
Additionally, smaller congregations are “graying,” meaning its members are getting older. When we get older, we don’t attend as often. Illness and mobility limit our participation. It’s a fact of life. Smaller congregations are finding it difficult to replace those graying members. The reasons are, again, diverse and complicated. Failing the Holy Spirit’s intervention, this prediction, too, is an easy one to make.
3) Artificial Intelligence will become more prominent in Christian worship.
I’m really going out on a limb with these predictions, aren’t I? Though it is an easy prediction to make, this one concerns me more than the rest. Why?
The use of Artificial intelligence removes the human element and removing the human element from Christian worship distorts the reality of Christian worship.
Consider this: recently, the number 1 song in Christian worship was written by AI and performed by an AI generated personality (see the story here). There is no Holy Spirit engagement, no human struggle, no human/Divine interaction, no witness/testimony. Each of these are necessary in authentic worship of the Lord.
Yes, I know. The integration of AI is just another use of “technology” in the worship experience, but is it a good one? How about AI writing your pastor’s sermons? Good idea? I don’t think so!
I’ll confess. I have utilized AI in my sermon preparation. It is a great tool to use for research. When I left full-time vocational ministry, I sold (or gave away) the lion’s share of my library. AI has kept me from having to repurchase volumes and volumes of commentaries, dictionaries and the like now that I’m serving bivocationally. As a tool, AI is great. As a replacement for prayer, study and preparation, not so much.
Honestly, AI can probably write a better sermon than I can. I tried it one time (read the results here). It was a very good sermon. No, I did not preach it.
AI can read all the Bible commentaries in the world in seconds, categorize their meanings and spit out a 2,000 word sermon in under a minute. What pastor wouldn’t love to free up 8 – 10 (or more) hours per week to devote to other responsibilities? But, using AI to write one’s sermon is equally as bad as a pastor plagiarizing another pastor’s sermon (which happens far too often, anyway). Then again, wasn’t it Mark Twain who said, “The key to originality is the ability to conceal one’s sources.” Ouch!
Let’s not even mention the impact that AI is going to have on the use of resources that could otherwise be used to promote human flourishing. Do you know how much energy (electricity) these AI data centers are going to need? WE ARE NOT PREPARED FOR THE FULLY FUNCTIONING AI EXPERIENCE!
AI will be the death of the human race. That’s a far more bold prediction than predicting it will be used more in Christian worship. Pastors and lay persons need to seriously assess the use of AI in the body of Christ. We need the Holy Spirit’s intervention if we are to be faithful stewards of this transformative technology.
2) Christian persecution will grow in 2026, especially in the United States.
It was November of last year that saw gunmen enter St. Mary’s Catholic School in Nigeria kidnapping over 300 students and a dozen teachers. Only a few days earlier, attackers targeted a church in Nigeria, killing two and injuring 38 more (story here). These types of attacks are increasing in frequency, so to predict more in 2026 is yet another easy call (see how bold I am?).
For a sampling of areas of persecution, see the Wikipedia statement below:
A little more bold prediction is for the type of persecution that is happening around the world is going to increase in the United States. What some call persecution, others call inconvenience. I see inconvenience soon becoming persecution with the increasing secularization of western culture, and the encroachment of Islamic influence and socialist/communist polices and politicians in our nation.
Examples of the “creeping” nature of this persecution are when churches were forced to close in 2020 while casinos, bars and strip clubs remained open, and the recent legal suits against Christian business owners who refused to serve LGBT+ customers. Okay, so I would have made the cake, but I shouldn’t be forced to or made to pay if I refuse. Need I even mention the targeting by the IRS of Christian non-profits?
Of all of my “bold” predictions, this is the one that is least likely to come to pass (at least I hope it is), but it is, nonetheless, a legitimate possibility.
And for my final prediction…
1) Jesus will continue to save the lost.
Talk about the no-brainer of no-brainers. The Holy Spirit will be active in the Church to make a difference in people’s lives and bring them to a saving relationship with Jesus Christ.
Our task, as disciples, is to live faithful, obedient and holy lives so that the Holy Spirit might actually use us in that process.
Evangelism is a cornerstone of the growth of the Kingdom of God and will be integral to the work the Holy Spirit will do if predictions 4 & 5 are to be avoided in 2026 and beyond. Unfortunately, I am afraid evangelism is no longer in the theological wheelhouse of the mainline church, or in many small congregations (regardless of affiliation).
Let us be diligent in sharing the Gospel because we know the Lord Jesus Christ is still in the saving business. His grace is enough.
I’m 100% certain of this prediction because no liberal, mainline theological drift, no congregational decline, no technology and no persecution can change the power of Jesus Christ to save a life. He is the One who builds His Church. He is the One who transforms lives. The Church, that invisible, eternal body of Christ will continue to grow and make a difference in this old world. How do I know? Because Jesus Himself said so:
“And I say also unto thee, ‘That thou art Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church; and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it’.” Matthew 16:18 (KJV)
That, my friends, is good news, indeed!
So, none of my predictions were really that bold after all. Well, anyway, here’s to a blessed 2026.
Not the Perfect Pastor 